Future scenarios for Amsterdam
Client’s request
What effect does the changing composition of the population have on Amsterdam’s society, economy and culture? What will Amsterdam society look like in 2015 and what does that mean for the municipality’s policy? Where do we have to build which type of housing? What facilities are needed? In which neighbourhoods is the safety issue becoming ever larger? Will there be ever more ‘black’ schools? These are questions that occupy the Amsterdam municipality. However, businesses and institutions also ask themselves what meaning the changing composition of the population has for them. Should they adjust their products and services to the new or increasingly important population groups? The Amsterdam municipality wanted to gain insight into these issues and asked Van de Bunt for assistance.
Our Approach
Under the supervision of Van de Bunt, managers, civil servants, entrepreneurs and social organisation created scenarios together. First, trends were identified in theme-oriented workshops on housing, education, economy, coexistence, etc. Then these trends were translated into future images during a search conference at a challenging and creative location. Van de Bunt has elaborated these in three scenarios: city of tolerance, city of success, and city of polarisation.
Result
The special asset of the method used is that it breaks away from the usual manner of policy development. Often, policy is developed by initially identifying the desired situation, and subsequently trying to establish what is needed in order to achieve the given goals. Companies and organisations, and certainly authorities, however, operate in a complex environment full of uncertainties and dependencies. Using the scenario method, we first investigated what the future could look like. Then policy proposals were developed that related to several scenarios. You cannot predict the future, but you can prepare for it.
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